Now is not the time for mortgage professionals to ease off the throttle, according to a Philadelphia-based broker
November and December typically mark a slower season for the US mortgage market as brokers and clients alike ease into holiday mode. But expectations of a busy spring market and more competition ahead are keeping plenty of borrowers in a homebuying frame of mind – and that means there’s no reason for mortgage professionals to rest on their laurels before the end of this year, according to a Philadelphia-based broker.
Yury Shraybman (pictured top), of Innovative Mortgage Brokers, told Mortgage Professional America he saw no letup in store for his own client outreach efforts even as Thanksgiving and the festive season roll into view, with ample business still to be found even in a typically quieter period.
“I’m still keeping my marketing going consistently the way that I have been in the past,” he said. “I really haven’t slowed down in terms of budget or anything like that. I’m still trying to grow my realtor database and referral business. So personally, I’m not sitting back and saying, ‘Hey, this is the holiday season – let me relax a bit.’ I’m going as strong as I have been all year long.”
Where are mortgage rates headed next year?
For now, the trajectory of mortgage rates in 2025 is anyone’s guess, with a months-long slide in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage over the summer followed by a pickup in recent weeks.
The economic impact of some of the incoming Trump administration’s policy proposals – from wide-ranging tariffs to mass deportations – remains to be seen. But many experts are still expecting rates to fall in 2025, even if that decline may be more moderate than first anticipated.
Shraybman said some hopeful buyers are wary about the possibility of bidding wars reemerging if mortgage rates drop in the year ahead, a factor that could make the difference in persuading them to push ahead with a move, now even with higher rates. “I’m expecting that when the rates drop, the demand is going to be much higher, so it’s going to cause the prices to go up,” he explained.
Mortgage rates rebounded last week, hitting 6.84%, the highest since July, amid rising Treasury yields. Broker Rebecca Richardson advises buyers to focus on affordability and timing, noting many accept rates won’t return to pandemic lows.https://t.co/rDktXI9oMN#mortgagetrends
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 22, 2024
“So I always tell my buyers to start looking as soon as possible and be able to get under contract now due to the fact that, in general, it’s a little bit of a slower season.”
What’s more, those brokers who continue to ramp up their marketing and lead generation efforts into December will probably benefit from the fact that many of their counterparts are taking a less proactive approach, he added.
“Sometimes people take it more slowly from the loan officer side, from the broker side, in terms of slowing down marketing – maybe not spending as much,” Shraybman said. “But I’m going strong no matter what, and I think that’s also helping a bit.”
Home purchase activity still healthy despite climbing rates
The third quarter of 2024 saw a jump in refinances as homeowners sought to take advantage of lower interest rates by restructuring their mortgage – although that trend may have faded in recent weeks thanks to the rate resurgence.
While Shraybman said the majority of his current business is on the purchase side, he noted plenty of investors are actively refinancing as they pull equity out of their home to purchase another property.
Despite rates once again trending upwards, he said many buyers in the purchase market haven’t been dissuaded – mainly because they can currently buy a home at a lower price than they might in a hotter 2025 market, with the expectation that they’ll then be able to refinance their mortgage at some point in the year ahead when rates do fall.
Fannie Mae recently downgraded its forecast for the 2025 housing market because of high mortgage rates and inflationary concerns, although it still expects the market to eke out growth next year.
The government-sponsored enterprise’s chief economist Mark Palim, however, sounded a positive note on the mortgage rate increases seen in the past few weeks. “To the extent that the recent run-up in rates has been driven by market expectations of stronger economic growth, we think this bodes well for the labor market outlook and home purchase demand,” he wrote.
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