Some newer brokers may be leaving the space – but prospects are still strong for top originators
These are turbulent times for loan originators and mortgage brokers across the US, with economic uncertainty, stubborn mortgage rates and political chaos contributing to a volatile housing and mortgage outlook this year.
That was the case even before President Trump decided to push ahead with huge tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods crossing the border, a move that some observers believe will cause American homebuilding costs to spike.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, new professionals flocked to the originator space amid a market boom triggered by rock-bottom rates and a surge in refinance and purchase activity – but some reports suggest the profession has seen a decline in numbers as the market has hardened in recent years.
Still, that’s not to say prospects for loan originators and brokers are plunging. The going may be tough for some newer professionals with little idea how to grow their business, but experienced brokers who are serious about riding out the current market are seeing plenty of opportunity as they look ahead, according to New York broker Andrew Russell (pictured top) of RCG Mortgage.
He told Mortgage Professional America brokers with a deep book of business on the purchase side – and whose business wasn’t too heavily skewed towards refinance activity – were still flourishing even in a more challenging environment.
“It’s not an easy market. A couple of years ago it was fairly easy, specifically because of the rate,” he said. “A lot of places that buy internet leads… are more geared towards refinance business. Refinances were booming during COVID. We’re a purchase-centric mortgage company and, even then, a third of our business was refi without even trying.
“[Customers were saying], ‘My rate was 6%, now the rate’s two and a quarter.’ That’s not really a sales job – that’s an order taker. It’s very easy. A lot of people flocked to the business and there was plenty of money to be made. But that specific model must be really difficult right now because there’s really no-one refinancing.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a US housing market rebound and faster inflation decline, citing deregulation and energy expansion. Meanwhile, mortgage rates remain high, posing affordability challenges. https://t.co/nuyQ3zfzeG
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) March 4, 2025
Spiking credit report costs a growing obstacle
The purchase side, by contrast, is ripe with opportunities for referrals – but it’s easier said than done to spark up a thriving purchase business, especially for newer and less established brokers, Russell said.
In the current market, that’s particularly challenging, particularly when it comes to preapprovals. “That involves running their credit – and credit pull costs over the last couple of years are brutal,” he said.
“You’re paying to build a book of business for yourself because you have to run all these credit reports, which could be thousands and thousands of dollars, and then the [customer] has to go out and find a house and get an accepted offer – but there’s no inventory.”
Inventory challenges continue to thwart homebuyers, brokers
That lack of supply makes it difficult for newer brokers to build up some steam and a solid flow of business, while the more established and experienced mortgage professionals may find it more manageable, according to Russell.
He compared prospects for experienced and talented loan originators with those of tenured teachers or guidance counselors who find themselves in a secure and prosperous position after grinding it out during the early years in the job.
“Tenure is after three to five years – you’re pretty much guaranteed a job for life,” he said. “So I thought, ‘In the mortgage world, people always buy houses. We’ll always have tenure in this country if you’re a really good mortgage loan originator doing purchase business with realtors and repeat clients,’ because people always buy houses.
“So that’s why I’ve always been very purchase-centric. But to start that train, to get it moving, is really hard.”
The effect of that changing market has been a rising barrier to entry for any prospective broker or loan originator. “You want to be a great purchase loan officer, first you’ve got to get licenced. All that stuff is of your own accord and unpaid. Then you’ve got to build a book. Then you’ve got to have accepted offers. You’re probably not going to make your first dollar on the commission side for several months,” he said.
“I think when people see that over time, there are barriers for entry… I think it’s kind of weeded people out.”
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