Mortgage originations for home purchase will reach $1.2 trillion in 2018 the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting
Mortgage originations for home purchase will reach $1.2 trillion in 2018 the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting.
The 7.3% increase from 2017 will contrast with a 28.3% slump in refinance applications to $430 billion with total mortgage originations down to $1.6 trillion (from $1.69 trillion this year).
For 2019, the MBA is forecasting total originations to rebound to $1.64 trillion, with purchase originations of $1.24 trillion and refinance originations of $395 billion.
"We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase at a faster clip in 2018, nearly double the rate that they increased in 2017. The housing market has been hamstrung by insufficient supply, with inventories of homes remarkably low given the home price growth we have experienced,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology.
The MBA is expecting the economy to remain strong with a 2% growth in GDP for 2018 before slowing to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. It forecasts a 4% unemployment rate for 2018.
In addition to the updated forward-looking forecast, MBA upwardly revised its estimate of originations for 2016 to $2.05 trillion from $1.89 trillion, to reflect the most recent data reported in the 2016 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data release.
The 7.3% increase from 2017 will contrast with a 28.3% slump in refinance applications to $430 billion with total mortgage originations down to $1.6 trillion (from $1.69 trillion this year).
For 2019, the MBA is forecasting total originations to rebound to $1.64 trillion, with purchase originations of $1.24 trillion and refinance originations of $395 billion.
"We are projecting that home purchase originations will increase at a faster clip in 2018, nearly double the rate that they increased in 2017. The housing market has been hamstrung by insufficient supply, with inventories of homes remarkably low given the home price growth we have experienced,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology.
The MBA is expecting the economy to remain strong with a 2% growth in GDP for 2018 before slowing to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. It forecasts a 4% unemployment rate for 2018.
In addition to the updated forward-looking forecast, MBA upwardly revised its estimate of originations for 2016 to $2.05 trillion from $1.89 trillion, to reflect the most recent data reported in the 2016 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data release.
