US labor market rebounds in November

But unemployment also increases, strengthening the case for a Fed cut in December

US labor market rebounds in November

US employers added 227,000 jobs last month, exceeding analyst forecasts in a rebound from October – but the unemployment rate also unexpectedly ticked higher.

While the jobs market bounced back compared with the prior month, when hurricanes and labor strikes weighed against hiring, the November figures released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics signaled that the economy is continuing to soften.

Economists polled by financial data company FactSet had anticipated job growth of 200,000 in November, although the jump in the jobless rate to 4.2% also belied their expectation that unemployment would remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) senior vice president and chief economist Mike Fratantoni also highlighted a sharp drop in employment and a higher number of households reporting spells of long-term unemployment.

The hiring rate is continuing to decline – and “while we are not seeing a pickup in layoffs, new entrants and individuals who lose jobs are having a more difficult time regaining employment,” he said in comments released after the jobs report.

“The payroll gains continue to be concentrated in just a few sectors: government, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality.”

The Federal Reserve, which is closely watching economic data trends as it weighs up its next move, is due to meet on interest rates for the last time this year on December 17-18.

Fratantoni said Friday’s data suggests another rate reduction is on the way. “Fed officials have pointed to their ‘data dependence’ when it comes to decisions about future rate cuts,” he said. “These data support a cut at the December meeting, and MBA forecasts that the Fed will continue to reduce short-term rates in 2025, although they are likely to slow the pace of cuts.”

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