What's happening with mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures?

Black Knight has released its report on May 2023 mortgage performance, providing insights into the state of the national mortgage market.

The report revealed that the total US loan delinquency rate, encompassing loans that were 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, stood at 3.10%. This represented a month-over-month decrease of 6.25% and a year-over-year decrease of 2.62%.

In terms of foreclosure data, the total US foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate is reported at 0.43%, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 2.03% and a year-over-year increase of 2.02%. Additionally, there were 25,400 foreclosure starts, marking a month-over-month increase of 2.16% and a year-over-year decrease of 4.39%.

Examining prepayment rates, the monthly prepayment rate is at 0.54%. This signifies a month-over-month increase of 23.12%, though it represents a substantial year-over-year decrease of 40.11%.

Furthermore, the report highlighted that foreclosure sales reached 6,800, indicating a month-over-month increase of 5.50% and a year-over-year increase of 18.95%.

In terms of specific property figures, there were 1,639,000 properties that were 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, representing a month-over-month decrease of 107,000 and a year-over-year decrease of 20,000. The number of properties that were 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure stood at 483,000, reflecting a month-over-month decrease of 18,000 and a year-over-year decrease of 203,000.

Additionally, the number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory was reported at 229,000, demonstrating a month-over-month decrease of 4,000 and a year-over-year increase of 8,000. Finally, there were 1,868,000 properties that were 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure, reflecting a month-over-month decrease of 112,000 and a year-over-year decrease of 13,000.

The report revealed that:

• In May, the national delinquency rate dropped by 11 basis points to reach 3.10%, the second-lowest level since March 2023.
• The number of borrowers who were a single payment past due decreased by 9.5%, erasing almost half of the previous month’s increase.
• Serious delinquencies, defined as loans 90 or more days past due, continued to improve, with a 3.7% decrease from April.
• Foreclosure starts rose slightly to 25.4k in May but remain close to the six-month low and 41% below May 2019 levels.
• Foreclosure actions were initiated on 5.1% of serious delinquencies, showing a marginal increase from April and still more than 1% below the March 2020 rate at the beginning of the pandemic.
• The number of loans in active foreclosure decreased by 15% since March 2020, while foreclosure sales saw a 5.5% increase from April.
• Prepayment activity saw a seasonal rise, reaching a 0.54% single-month mortality rate, the highest since September 2022.

According to Black Knight’s data, the top five states with the highest non-current percentage included: Mississippi (7.34%), Louisiana (6.78%), Alabama (5.33%), West Virginia (4.87%), and Pennsylvania (4.84%).

Meanwhile, the bottom five states with the lowest non-current percentage were Oregon (2.09%), Montana (2.02%), Idaho (2.01%), Colorado (1.96%), and Washington (1.92%).

The top five states with the highest 90+ days delinquent percentage were Mississippi (2.21%), Louisiana (1.81%), Alabama (1.55%), Arkansas (1.34%), and Georgia (1.23%). Meanwhile, Alaska (-24.21%), Connecticut (-15.19%), Vermont (-12.33%), New York (-11.87%), and North Dakota (-10.76%) were the top five states showing the most significant 12-month change in non-current percentage.

Conversely, the bottom five states with the least change in non-current percentage were Idaho (14.44%), Utah (6.09%), Arizona (5.84%), Michigan (5.62%), and Georgia (3.35%).

Black Knight will release a comprehensive Mortgage Monitor report by July 10, 2023.