Northeast and Midwest regions will likely see declines this year
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Home prices are projected to rise nationally in 2019, while home values in some individual states might decline, according to a report by CoreLogic.
CoreLogic forecasted a 4.8% increase in home prices nationwide. However, the company said to anticipate seeing a lot of disparity across the US.
“We believe that while several states and dozens of core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) will experience solid appreciation rates, many others will experience significant slowdowns for the first time in over seven years,” CoreLogic wrote. “In a nutshell, we anticipate seeing a lot of disparity across the nation.”
Economist at the firm also said states with cities that offer a variety of amenities, active lifestyle, and good career opportunities would likely continue to do well over the next few years.
“However, we predict that a total of 17 CBSAs across the nation will experience declines in year-over-year home prices through December 2019,” CoreLogic wrote. “Interestingly, these CBSAs are spread out across the Northeast and Midwest in areas such as New Jersey, Virginia, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Texas. In addition, many CBSAs across the country will experience slower appreciation rates of between .01% – 3% for the first time in many years.”
CoreLogic looked into all CBSAs with populations of more than 200,000 and predicted that 14 would not do well in 2019. Each of these CBSAs is expected to appreciate at less than 3%:
1. Corpus Christi, TX
2. New Orleans-Metairie, LA
3. Springfield, IL
4. Peoria, IL
5. Montgomery, AL
6. Baton Rouge, LA
7. Oklahoma City, OK
8. Fargo, ND-MN
9. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
10. Rochester, NY
11. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
12. Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ
13. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
14. Jackson, MS
Home values in CBSAs in states across the Northeast and Midwest will likely decline. Many of these areas face less-desirable quality of life attributes, affordability challenges, and in some cases, below-average economic conditions, according to the forecast.
“We recommend that our clients closely study CBSA-level forecasts due to the disparity in neighboring markets,” the company wrote. “CoreLogic HPI Forecast is the market leader in home price forecasts. We benchmark our performance against actuals and consistently find that our forecast is within 1% of actual home prices over a 12-month period nationwide.”
