Survey reveals market views as election draws nearer
Real estate investors are increasingly confident in the market’s future and seem to be betting on Kamala Harris as the likely winner of the upcoming presidential race, according to a survey.
More than half of investors (51.4%) surveyed in RCN Capital’s new report expect Harris to win, while 40.5% believe Donald Trump will come out on top.
Investor sentiment has seen a significant boost, rising eight points from the previous quarter. Nearly 68% of respondents said the market is better than it was a year ago, and 71% are optimistic that it will continue to improve. This marks the highest percentage of positive responses since the survey began.
"Investor sentiment is almost twice as positive today as it was in the third quarter of 2023, and they're even more optimistic about the future," said RCN Capital CEO Jeffrey Tesch. "It seems likely that investors are reacting to improving market dynamics – financing costs declining, the inventory or homes for sale increasing dramatically, and home price appreciation slowing down, but still rising."
Flippers favor Harris
Investors surveyed were not only confident in Harris's chances of winning the election but also viewed her as better for the real estate investing environment. Around 47.2% of respondents said Harris would create a better climate for investors, compared to 39.2% for Trump.
Interestingly, views on the election differ across states. In California, flippers lean toward Trump, with 62.1% predicting he will win. Rental property investors in the state favor Trump even more strongly, with 70% expecting him to create a better real estate environment. However, in Florida, opinions are divided: 60% of flippers believe Harris will win, while 65% of rental property investors predict a Trump victory.
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On a national level, flippers generally favor Harris, with 56.9% saying she would be better for the real estate market. In contrast, rental property investors are more inclined to back Trump, with 45% believing he would foster a better investment environment compared to 39.6% for Harris.
Mixed views on policy impact
Despite some policies from the Biden-Harris administration, such as rent control and proposed tax increases, which are seen as unfavorable to investors, many believe that Harris's overall approach could strengthen the housing market. Investors were hopeful that her policies could benefit not just investors but also tenants and homebuyers.
"Survey respondents told us that a Harris Administration could create a more robust environment for investing, despite some proposals – like raising the capital gains tax – and policies being pursued by the Biden Harris Administration, such as rent control and limiting tax benefits for owners of 50 or more rental properties, that seem to be inherently anti-investor," said Rick Sharga, CEO of CJ Patrick Company, the intelligence firm that conducted the survey.
"It could be that investors are optimistic about the Harris campaign's initiatives focused on strengthening the housing market overall, and believe that those policies might benefit investors, tenants, and homebuyers alike."
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