With three weeks to go before the election, this brand new report predicts who will win in your state.
Is there a correlation between the health of a local housing market and its election results? According to housing data provider RealtyTrac, there is.
RealtyTrac’s 2014 Election Housing Scorecard report compares housing health in 1,547 counties nationwide today to two years ago and makes election predictions based on whether they are better off, worse off or a toss-up. The real estate information firm based the housing health of a county on five factors: unemployment rates, foreclosure starts, median home prices and the percentage of seriously underwater homeowners.
With three weeks to go before the election, RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard looks at the housing market in eight highly contested Senate races: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.
According to Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, races in areas where the housing market is better off than it was two years ago will favor the incumbent, or the incumbent’s party.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s U.S. heat map.
“Whether because of good government policy, sheer luck or otherwise, the majority of county housing markets in six of the eight states with close U.S. Senate races are better off than they were two years ago. This should favor the incumbent, or the incumbent’s party, all else being equal — which of course we know it is not,” said Blomquist. “The only exceptions were Iowa and Alaska, where the majority of county housing markets were classified as toss-ups compared with two years ago.”
A total of 52% of all 1,547 U.S. counties analyzed were categorized as better off compared to two years ago, while 11% fell into the worse-off category and 36% were categorized a toss-up. A total of 50% of the total population in all housing markets analyzed for the report were in the better-off category, while 9% were in the worse-off markets and 41% were in the toss-up pile.
Click on any of eight states below to see their housing markets and who is predicted to win.
Closest Senate election races:
Georgia
North Carolina
Colorado
Louisiana
Iowa
Arkansas
Kansas
Alaska
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Georgia housing market favors Republican incumbent party
RealtyTrac predicts that the Republican incumbent party—with the incumbent retiring—will win in Georgia. Of the 80 counties in Georgia scored, 56 were categorized as better off, while 19 were categorized as toss-ups and five were categorized as worse off. Currently, Republican candidate David Perdue is slightly ahead in the polls.
In Georgia’s three largest housing markets, unemployment is down over the past two years. In Fulton County, unemployment is down 1.5 percentage points, while Dekalb County is down 1.30 percentage points and Gwinnett County’s jobless rate is down 1.2 percentage points.
Meanwhile, seriously underwater borrowers are still a concern in Georgia. In Dekalb County, 31% of homeowners with a mortgage are seriously underwater, compared to 19% in Fulton County and 9% in Gwinnett County.
However, double-digit rises in home prices are buoying Georgia’s real estate market. In Dekalb County, home prices are up 49% compared to two years ago, while Fulton County saw home values increase 30% and Gwinnett County registered a 33% increase in home prices.
The sharp rise in home prices without a corresponding rise in incomes is worsening the affordability situation in the major Georgia counties. The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 7 percentage points from two years ago in Fulton and Dekalb counties and is up 5 percentage points in Gwinnett County.
Meanwhile, foreclosure starts are significantly lower compared with two years ago in the major Georgia counties. In Dekalb County, foreclosure starts plunged 55% from August 2012 to August 2014. Fulton County saw a 58% decrease in foreclosure starts, while Gwinnett County saw foreclosure starts drop 62%.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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North Carolina housing market favors Democratic incumbent
In North Carolina, where 66% of the counties were categorized as better off, the Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is favored and has a slight edge in the polls. Of the 83 counties in North Carolina scored, 66 were categorized as better off, while 12 were categorized as toss-ups and five were categorized as worse off.
In North Carolina’s three largest real estate markets — Mecklenburg, Wake and Guilford — the housing market favors the incumbent. Unemployment is down from two years ago in all three major housing markets: including Mecklenburg County’s unemployment rate is down 2.8 percentage points, Wake County’s unemployment rate is down 2.3 percentage points and Guilford County’s unemployment rate is down 3.0 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the percentage of homeowners underwater is below the national average in all three of these counties thanks in part to rising home prices from two years ago. Homes are less affordable than they were two years ago in all three of the most populated North Carolina counties, but that shift away from affordability is not as dramatic in these counties as the nationwide average.
Two of the three most populated North Carolina counties show a decrease in foreclosure starts from a year ago, with Mecklenburg County foreclosure starts down 50% and Guilford County foreclosure starts down 37%. In contrast, Wake County foreclosure starts are up 18% compared with two years ago.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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Colorado housing market favors Democratic incumbent
While the pools show a dead heat in Colorado, RealtyTrac’s report favors the Democratic incumbent, Senator Mark Udall; this market had no counties categorized as worse off. Of the 35 counties in Colorado scored, 33 were categorized as better off while two were categorized as toss-ups and none were categorized as worse off.
Unemployment is down in Denver’s most populated housing counties — El Paso, Denver County and Arapahoe. In Denver County, unemployment is down 3.0 percentage points from July 2012 to July 2014, compared with a 2.9 percentage point decrease in El Paso County and a 2.5 percentage point decrease in Arapahoe County. The tide of seriously underwater Colorado borrowers is also receding, with only 6% of homeowners with a mortgage who are underwater in the three most-populated counties
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Meanwhile, home prices are rising in all three counties compared with two years ago. In Arapahoe County, home prices are up 22% in Denver County home values are up 14%, while El Paso County saw home prices rise 5%.
However, the rise in Colorado home prices without a corresponding rise in incomes is worsening the affordability situation in the major Colorado counties. The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 5 percentage points from two years ago in Denver and Arapahoe counties and is up 2 percentage points in El Paso County.
Meanwhile, foreclosure starts are down from two years ago in two of the three most-populated Colorado counties. In Denver County, foreclosure starts are down 67% from August 2012 to August 2014. El Paso County saw a 54% decline in foreclosure starts, while Arapahoe County saw foreclosure starts rise by 3 percentage points.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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Louisiana housing market favors Democratic incumbent
Three-term Democrat Senator Mary L. Landrieu faces her most challenging race yet against, battling largely against two Republicans, but RealtyTrac’s report predicts she’ll take the race. Of the 18 parishes in Louisiana scored, 12 were categorized as better off, while six were categorized as toss-ups and none were categorized as worse off.
Housing market data in two out of Louisiana’s three largest housing markets — East Baton Rouge Parish and Orleans Parish — favors the incumbent while housing data is a toss-up in the third, Jefferson Parish.
Unemployment is down in all three major counties about 1 percentage point compared with two years ago. With regards to underwater borrowers, the data is mixed. In Jefferson Parish, 16% of borrowers are seriously underwater, while 15% are seriously underwater in East Baton Rouge Parish. However, in Orleans Parish only 4% of borrowers were seriously underwater.
Home prices are also mixed in Louisiana’s three largest housing markets. In East Baton Rouge Parish, home prices are up 14% compared with two years ago, while Jefferson Parish saw home values increase 7%. Orleans Parish, however, saw home prices plunge 23% from August 2012 to August 2014.
he percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 3 percentage points from two years ago in East Baton Rouge Parish and is up 2 percentage points in Jefferson Parish. The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is down 4% in Orleans Parish, making that market more affordable than it was two years ago.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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Iowa housing market a toss-up
With Democrat Senator Tom Harkin retiring, the race between state Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and GOP state Sen. Joni Ernst is considered one of the most competitive in the country – and RealtyTrac said it’s a toss-up. Of the seven counties in Iowa scored, one was categorized as better off, while four were categorized as toss-ups and two were categorized as worse off.
In Iowa’s three largest county real estate markets — Polk County, Linn County and Scott County — the housing outlook is mixed. Unemployment rates are down less than one percentage point in all three counties, but underwater rates are below the national average.
Median home sales prices are up compared with two years ago in Polk and Scott counties, but down slightly in Linn County. Meanwhile, the slower home price appreciation does help out the affordability situation in Iowa, where the percentage of median income needed to buy a median-priced home is up less than 2 percentage points in both Polk and Linn counties.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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Arkansas housing market favors Democratic incumbent
Two-term Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor of Arkansas is in the fight of his political life against freshman GOP challenger Tom Cotton, however RealtyTrac predicts he stands a pretty good chance of winning. Of the nine counties in Arkansas scored, eight were categorized as better off while one was categorized as toss-up and none were categorized as worse off.
Arkansas’ three largest counties —Pulaski, Benton, and Washington — all had a decrease of about 1 percentage point in unemployment rates compared with two years ago. In Washington County, 17% of homeowners with a mortgage are seriously underwater, while in Benton County 14% are seriously underwaqter and 12% of Pulaski County mortgage holders are seriously underwater.
However, home prices are up in Washington County, rising 22% between August 2012 and August 2014. The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 5 percentage points from two years ago in Washington County. Arkansas foreclosure starts are down in all three counties compared with two years ago: 90% in Benton County, 78% in Washington County and 70% in Pulaski County.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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Kansas housing market favors Republican incumbent
Kansas Senate race is close between Republican Senator Pat Roberts and independent Greg Orman, who gained a major boost after the state’s Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, withdrew from the race. The state has remained Republican, and based on the housing market, RealtyTrac said Roberts stands a good chance. Of the 22 counties in Kansas scored, 21 were categorized as better off while one was categorized as a toss-up and none were categorized as worse off.
In Kansas’ three largest real estate markets — Johnson County, Sedgwick County and Shawnee County unemployment is down compared with two years ago. Home prices are up in all three major Kansas housing markets, with Johnson County up 11%), Sedgwick County up 3% and Shawnee County up 18%.
The rise in home prices without a corresponding rise in incomes is worsening the affordability situation in the major Kansas counties. The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 3 percentage points from two years ago in Shawnee County and is up 2 percentage points in Johnson County, while Sedgwick County is up 1 percentage point.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
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Alaska housing market a toss-up
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich faces a steep challenge against Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, who is ahead in the polls. RealtyTrac predicts a toss-up. Of the three counties in Alaska scored, one was categorized as better off, while two were categorized as a toss-up and none were categorized as worse off.
In Alaska’s most populated housing counties — Anchorage, Fairbanks North and Matanuska-Susitna —unemployment is down compared less than one percentage point compared with two years ago. In Anchorage County, only 2.6 % of homes with a mortgage are seriously underwater, compared with 7.5% in Matanuska-Susitna County.
The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 3 percentage points from two years ago in Anchorage County and is up 0.4 percentage points in Fairbanks North Star County. However, foreclosure starts are up significantly in from two years ago in two of the three major Alaska housing markets — Anchorage and Fairbanks North Star — while foreclosure starts are down from two years ago in Matanuska-Susitna.
Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.
