Respondents do a 180-degree turn from last survey in terms of confidence
It’s one thing to gauge individual brokers on how they feel about the housing industry and the economy, quite another to provide a snapshot on their sentiments in the aggregate. Fortunately, there’s a survey for that.
For the second consecutive year, the Delta Real Estate Leadership Survey has prepared a snapshot to gauge collective views on the industry. The survey by Delta Media Group is exhaustive, representing a sampling of firms responsible for 65% of home sales last year.
According to the report, two in three professionals – or 66% of respondents – expect housing demand to improve this year. This is an improvement in outlook from last year, when only one-third of respondents expected improvement in 2023 -- annus horribilis for virtually everyone in the industry.
Contradictions abound in respondents’ views
The survey also found that 53% said the US economy will improve over the course of the next 12 months – a nearly 180-degree turn from the 51% that expected the economy in 2022 to deteriorate. Michael Minard (pictured), CEO/owner of Delta Media Group, spoke to Mortgage Professional America about the findings. Still, one in five (20%) believe the US economy will deteriorate or deteriorate significantly in 2024.
The biggest surprises emerging from the study lie in their contradiction, Minard agreed. One of the biggest surprises of the study, Minard found, was the preponderance of brokers predicting better times in their local economy while registering pessimism about the state and national economies. In a topsy-turvy market, Minard agreed such contradictions appear to be par for the course in an economy of contradictions and aberrations.
“We specifically asked questions that centered around the economy so we could get more insight into where their heads are at from a local, state and national level,” Minard told MPA during a telephone interview. “The majority of the respondents had a more favorable outlook as to the future of the economy on a local level than they did at state and federal levels. I find it humorous. There’s mixed messaging going on that I’m still seeing that doesn’t make sense but is quite interesting.”
In the next breath, he expressed some level of understanding given the mercurial nature of the economy – with twists and turns not seen before. “I think it’s more the uncertainty that I feel a lot of businesses are feeling,” he said. “They’re pushing forward but there’s some uncertainty with the economy yet they feel their local market – or local world – is doing OK.”
The state of the local economy is strong, respondents convey
The upshot: When brokerage leaders were asked to rank confidence levels in their local, state and US national economies today versus a year ago, local economies reaped the highest overall confidence (42%), followed by state (33%) and US (29%).
And don’t even get started on global economic sentiment. “Leaders have little confidence in the global economy,” Minar said. “Only 3% were more confident of the global economy today versus a year ago, with 57% less confident. Those saying their confidence remained unchanged accounted for 40% of all respondents.
More contrasts in the Delta Media Group report emerged when respondents’ confidence levels were assessed according to age and gender. Confidence levels in the US economy are generally lower than local and state economies for both genders and ages, with males still showing slightly higher confidence. For the global economy, confidence levels are lowest among genders and all age groups. Females showed no confidence in the global economy, and males only had a marginal confidence level.
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