Buyer demand rebounds after a summer mortgage rate drop
After a summer dip, US home prices showed little movement in October 2024, rising 3.4% year over year and just 0.02% from September, according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index.
The slight uptick reflected renewed homebuying demand spurred by a brief drop in mortgage rates in August. Despite this modest recovery, housing prices remain largely flat nationwide.
“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August.”
CoreLogic forecasted national home price growth to slow to 2.4% by October 2025. However, single-family home prices are expected to reach a new peak by April 2025. The current median sales price for US single-family homes is $385,000, reflecting relative stability in the market.
“As we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market,” Hepp said in the report. “In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”
Among major metro areas, Chicago led with a 6.4% year-over-year price gain, followed by Miami at 6.2% and Las Vegas at 5.6%. These increases underscore the growing demand in specific urban markets. However, some metros face challenges ahead.
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CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator identified Provo-Orem, Utah, as the most at-risk market, with over a 70% likelihood of a price decline within the next 12 months. Salt Lake City, Utah; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Georgia; Tucson, Arizona; and Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, Florida, were also flagged as vulnerable to downward price pressure.
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