Rocket bets on AI to lead mortgage market recovery

This follows the firm's first reported annual loss as a public company

Rocket bets on AI to lead mortgage market recovery

Rocket Companies, one of the largest mortgage lenders in the United States, is navigating a period of significant transition as it seeks to recover from a challenging financial year. The Detroit-based firm, known for its early successes in the nonbank mortgage lending sector, reported its first annual loss as a public company in 2023. This loss marked a dramatic shift for Rocket, which had previously thrived on a booming refinancing market that has since dried up due to rising interest rates.

With a new CEO, Varun Krishna, at the helm, Rocket is betting heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) to revamp its business model and regain its market dominance. Krishna, who assumed leadership in the midst of the company’s downturn, is focused on using AI to address inefficiencies in the home-buying process—a process that has been criticized for its complexity and stress-inducing nature. According to a 2022 Zillow survey, 50% of homebuyers, including more than 60% of Millennials and Gen Z buyers, reported crying at least once during the purchasing process. A Bloomberg report highlighted that Krishna has seen this as an opportunity to innovate and transform Rocket’s operations.

Charting a path through complexity

The company’s ambitious strategy, however, faces significant hurdles. The decline in mortgage refinancing led Rocket to fall to third place in mortgage origination rankings last year, behind United Wholesale Mortgage and PennyMac Financial Services. Additionally, the broader mortgage market remains under pressure from high interest rates and elevated home prices, both of which are beyond Rocket’s control. Despite these challenges, Rocket is expanding its reach into related areas, such as real estate and title insurance, in an effort to capture a larger share of the $5 trillion US home-buying market.

Rocket’s AI focus is key to Krishna’s vision, with over $500 million invested in AI over the past five years to automate mortgage approval tasks, Bloomberg reported. These innovations have already yielded tangible results, with Rocket’s AI platform, Rocket Logic, saving more than 5,000 hours of underwriters’ manual work in February 2024 alone, according to a Bloomberg report. The company’s automated valuation model has also accelerated the processing of home-equity loans.

Despite the promising advancements in technology, Rocket’s financial performance has been volatile. The company’s net income, which exceeded $6 billion in 2021, plummeted by almost 90% in 2022 before swinging to a $390 million loss in 2023. In response, Rocket is diversifying its offerings to reduce its dependence on interest rate fluctuations, expanding into areas like credit cards and personal loans.

Optimism ahead

In a bid to drive Rocket Companies’ transformation, Krishna and Dan Gilbert, the firm’s founder and chairman, have been bolstering their leadership team with tech-savvy executives. Earlier this year, Rocket hired Shawn Malhotra as its first chief technology officer. Additionally, they appointed Alex Rampell, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and a recognized “AI thought leader,” to the board of directors.

Rocket’s push into AI and technology has been well-received by investors, with the company’s stock rising 36% in 2024. However, shares remain only slightly above their 2020 initial public offering price, underperforming the broader market, Bloomberg highlighted.

The company’s success will depend on its ability to navigate a competitive and regulated mortgage industry.

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