The profession has seen a much-reported exodus in recent times – but don't bet against numbers rising if the market heats up
A spike in mortgage rates in recent years and continuing affordability challenges across the country have cooled the national housing and mortgage markets, contributing to something of an exodus of loan officers and mortgage brokers from the industry since the COVID-19 pandemic.
But that trend could prove a short-lived one, according to Association of Independent Mortgage Experts (AIME) chairman and chief executive officer Jonathon Haddad (pictured top), who told Mortgage Professional America he’s expecting LO numbers to begin climbing steadily again when mortgage rates finally hit their sweet spot.
Exactly 155,826 licensed originators – excluding real estate professionals – were registered in the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) as of March 1, more than 30,000 down from peak levels.
But it’s not expected to remain that low for long. “I do believe you’ll see an influx of additional LOs coming in,” Haddad told MPA during AIME’s recent Unify conference in Chandler, AZ. “What you’re seeing is a lot of new loan officers joining the space.
“You have a lot of new training coming out and you’re getting people fresh off the ground, newly licensed. A lot more new licenses are coming out than ever before. So we do think that is part of these lenders also training up people and getting them ready because they think there’s something on the horizon as well.”
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked lower in the opening months of 2025, although it moved slightly upwards in March – and continue to hover well above the mid-sixes.
That’s convinced plenty of buyers and potential refinancers that now is the time to hold steady rather than make a move or consider a refi. But Haddad said there remains a huge amount of pent-up interest in the US housing market – and buyers ready to pounce when rates post a stronger downward trend.
“There’s a massive bottleneck right now,” he said. “There’s huge demand. But here’s the problem: inventory is still sitting because a lot of these clients have low rates. But once rates stabilize enough – we’re talking low sixes, mid-fives – it’s going to be a cluster of business coming in the door. It’s going to skyrocket [when] things become just slightly affordable.”
Consumers slowly becoming accustomed to higher-for-longer rates?
During the pandemic, mortgage rates plunged and scores of homeowners and buyers rushed to take advantage of ultra-low borrowing costs, triggering a purchasing and refinancing surge.
Borrowers got used to those rock-bottom rates between 2020 and 2022, meaning the subsequent spike in rates – triggered in part by a spiraling inflation crisis – saw the rise of the so-called “lock-in” effect, with homeowners unwilling to list their properties or move and sacrifice a rate they wouldn’t get again.
The Federal Reserve will now cut interest rates three times in 2025 with chances of a US recession rising to 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.https://t.co/XCTuoZrx7n
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) March 31, 2025
But borrowers have slowly become accustomed to the new reality, Haddad said, meaning they’re no longer put off by rates significantly higher than those seen during the pandemic.
“What’s happened over the last three years is that [brokers] have taught the consumer that the average rate is 6.99% or 7.5%,” he said. “The first year or two years [after COVID] it was, ‘We want the 2%, we want the 3%.’ So once we see that bottleneck start to pop, I think [activity] is going to absolutely skyrocket.”
How are homebuyers responding to potential economic volatility?
A potential spanner in the works could be the Trump administration’s looming trade war, with today marking so-called “Liberation Day” for the US – the imposition of sweeping tariffs against countries including European Union nations, Canada, and Mexico.
Consumer confidence in the housing market is waning, according to a new Clever Real Estate survey, with 70% of Americans reportedly fearing a sharp economic contraction and housing market downturn.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of respondents to the survey believe US tariffs will hurt the economy, while 32% are now worried they won’t be able to afford housing payments because of underlying economic strain.
But first-time buyers are still bullish on the housing market, a TD poll showed, with 74% optimistic about the market’s prospects and 47% saving for a downpayment even despite current affordability challenges and economic storm clouds.
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