Narrow window of affordability set to close in mid-2025
The Bank of Canada is in the midst of an interest-rate cutting cycle, and plenty of would-be homebuyers are staying on the fence in anticipation of even lower rates down the line. But many of those waiting are missing a big opportunity, according to a top Ontario broker, to snag low-rate options already on offer.
Nick L’Ecuyer (pictured), principal broker and founder at the Barrie-based Mortgage Wellness, told Canadian Mortgage Professional that hype around central bank rate cuts had drawn attention away from diving bond yields in recent months that have seen fixed mortgage rates plunge.
That’s allowed first-time homebuyers on insured mortgages to take advantage of five-year fixed rates as low as 3.94% in October, a big slice off best prime rates that – with a generous discount – might hover around the 5.7% mark.
Furor around the Bank of Canada’s rate-cutting timeline and a flurry of recent mortgage qualification rule adjustments by the federal government are seeing many borrowers look ahead to what they might be able to afford in future, according to L’Ecuyer, rather than focusing on what’s available now. “All of these people that are sitting on the sidelines saying, ‘I’ve got to wait for rates to come down’ – I mean, they’re already here,” he said.
“People just don’t know it, because they’re so blinded by the Bank of Canada rate decisions and all the talk about when rates are going to come down, and how is the economy, and the government’s aid, and these impending mortgage renewals. That’s all the focus.”
New mortgage measures set to boost housing market demand
Another reason now is a good time to get into the market, L’Ecuyer believes: activity is likely to ramp up in 2025, sparked by lower prime rates and the government’s recent measures on mortgage amortizations and the insured mortgage cap.
The moves were billed by the government as an effort to make homeownership accessible to more Canadians, especially those buying for the first time, and help ease some of the affordability woes facing those who’ve been priced out of the market to date.
Mortgage sector advisor and FSRA committee member JP Boutros emphasized that recent federal measures—like expanded 30-year amortizations and increased insured mortgage caps—are not a cure-all for affordability challenges. https://t.co/Yn4LjAp3J2
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) October 11, 2024
That means those who can currently afford to buy now would be best advised to push ahead with a move, he said. “There’s a whole ton of very smart people who are capturing all these great opportunities in the market that are brought to us by stagnant sales, lower prices, tons of inventory, and great fixed interest rates,” he explained.
“I wonder how long it’s going to be until people start to realize that there’s opportunity: ‘Hey, I don’t have to go into multiple offers. I can get a condition on financing, a condition for a home inspection, and a great interest rate.’”
When will Canada’s housing market begin to gather pace again?
Two recently announced mortgage rule changes by the federal government – expanded access to 30-year amortizations and a hike in the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million – are set to come into effect on December 15.
The time between that date and the summer of 2025, L’Ecuyer said, represents the likely window buyers will have to lock in the most affordable mortgage possible before housing market activity, and home prices, start to ramp up.
The ability of first-time homebuyers to tap into 30-year amortizations could materially improve affordability for scores of new buyers, especially outside Canada’s priciest urban markets.
In Barrie, L’Ecuyer said, buying a $600,000 townhouse last year in Barrie on a 25-year amortization and high interest rates would see a monthly mortgage payment of almost $4,000 a month – significantly above the average rent on those properties of around $2,600.
Now, with a 3.94% five-year fixed rate and 30-year amortization, the monthly payment would plunge to $2,900. “If you say to me that I can own it for $2,900 or rent it for $2,600, I’m going to own it, pay it down, it’ll appreciate,’” he said. “That’s when things are going to start to warm up: when people realize that affordability is back.”
Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.
